This is What I See – The 5 “Rises” (Part 1 of 2)

Algoinsights Blog, Circuit Breaker, COVID-19, Depression Economics, Global Debt Crisis, New Normal, Recession

As the whole world is opening up their economies after their lockdowns, scientists, governments, and business leaders are talking about what the new normal will be like. I think the new normal will be very abnormal for most of us.

In this article I would like to share what I see – the 5 “Rises” as the new normal. As per all my blog articles, these are my thoughts, and anyone is free to agree or disagree. I am OK with that.

  1. The Rise of the Digital Platform

Post-pandemic will cause a surge in the demand for IT and AI personnel and expertise. While our government is pushing businesses to go digital is a good move in the right direction, however, I feel the take-up rate will be slow as most businesses are not geared to do their business online. Also, the costs of setting up and the on-going maintenance costs even with financial assistance from the government can be high for most businesses to hop on to this digital train.

A simple mobile app or a website will not make it with today’s level of competition in the online space. It will be a complete waste of your time and money. I see only those businesses with a deeper pocket can thrive and capitalize on this emerging trend. As such, businesses that did not catch on the digital train shall be left behind.

  • The Rise in the Distribution and Delivery Business

Food and grocery delivery businesses shall continue to thrive in the post-pandemic world, at least until a vaccine is found. They have proven themselves to be thriving during our Circuit Breaker period. Also, as most people are working from home, timely parcels and documents door-to-door delivery services will be critical and thriving as they help solve the bottleneck issue that may be experienced with the traditional postal services. Supply chains and distribution businesses shall thrive very well post-pandemic.

  • The Rise in Plastic Use

This is a sad case. Our oceans are polluted with more plastics than we can ever count. With this pandemic, increased food and grocery deliveries mean increased plastic use. This translates into more plastics in our dump sites and oceans. Not a particularly good sign environmentally. I just hope all food and grocery outlets would starting today use only environmentally friendly plastic packaging to help save the planet from further plastic assaults.

  • The Rise in Domestic Violence and Mental Depression

Cases of domestic violence have increased all over the world during this pandemic. Financial stress, anxiety, worry, and cabin fever, etc. are all contributing factors. It just takes someone in the family to snap and you have domestic violence in the making. If this pandemic continues for another one year or even longer, we can expect domestic violence and mental depression to continue rising.    

  • The Rise in Unemployment, Business Closures, Loan Defaults, and Bankruptcies

These ugly 4 are common in any economic crisis but this COVID-19 is different. It is far more serious and damaging than the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008/9 probably by a factor of 10 or more. All governments across the world know this and have injected billions and trillions of dollars into their economy to save jobs and businesses at the start of this pandemic. However, despite all these stimulus packages we have tens of millions of people who went unemployed globally and, spikes in business closures, loan defaults, and bankruptcies of untold proportion as of this writing.

Stimulus packages can only help this far and no further. Any economy will tank if this is continued, and it may result in a massive global debt disaster. And businesses that survive this pandemic will take decades to repay those loans. Not exactly a walk in the park at all. We need the vaccine as desperately as a drowning person needs air or we may enter into depression economics before you know it.

In this article, I will stop here with my 5 “Rises” as I see them. Read them with an open mind and see if you can spot any opportunity for yourself.

In my next article, I will share the 5 “Falls” from my perspective to help you think even further and deeper. So, stay tuned.

Thank you for reading this article.

Victor Ang